Early voting figures suggest Democratic gains in Ohio’s most Trump-friendly counties

Key Points:

• Early voting data in Ohio shows increased enthusiasm among Democrats, with Democratic-affiliated voters making up a larger share of pre-election voters compared to two years ago, even in traditionally Republican areas.
• The Republican lead in heavily Trump-supporting counties has narrowed from 30 points in 2024 to just five points this year, while Democratic turnout has increased significantly in counties that favored Kamala Harris.
• Despite these trends, the early voting turnout is still low at about 11% of 2022’s total, and Republicans historically vote more on Election Day, meaning the current data is not yet determinative.
• Similar partisan shifts toward Democrats in early voting are observed in New Jersey, especially in counties that strongly supported Trump, though in-person early voting has not yet begun there.
• There is a notable shift in voting methods in Ohio, with early in-person voting at 72% of 2024 levels, while mail voting has declined sharply to just 25%, indicating a move away from mail-in ballots post-pandemic.