El Niño still growing stronger. Here's what could happen next

Key Points:

• The current El Niño has reached the highest intensity category, classified as "very strong" by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, joining only three other events since 1950 at this level (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16).
• El Niño is expected to peak between late 2026 and early 2027, with its influence on global weather patterns continuing into spring 2027, potentially causing extreme heat, drought, heavy rainfall, and near-record global temperatures.
• There is a 61% chance that ENSO-neutral conditions will return by April-June 2027, but a 38% chance remains for El Niño to persist, and a possible transition to La Niña could occur later in 2027, increasing the likelihood of an active Atlantic hurricane season.
• In the U.S., El Niño is currently driving weather patterns, with an active storm track favoring the Southwest to Upper Midwest, and winter forecasts predict increased rain and flooding risks in the Southern Plains, Southeast, and mid-Atlantic, while the West may see beneficial snowfall.
• Other regional impacts include warmer and drier conditions with below-average snowfall in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, and heightened flooding and landslide risks in California due to repeated atmospheric rivers and elevated coastal water levels.