El Niño is coming, chances rising it will be historically strong
CNN • • general
Key Points:
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño is developing faster than expected in the Pacific Ocean, with a 2 in 3 chance it will be strong or very strong, potentially becoming a rare “Super” El Niño by fall or winter.
- El Niño, a natural climate cycle marked by warming tropical Pacific waters, influences global weather by triggering droughts, heat waves, flooding, and can suppress the Atlantic hurricane season while exacerbating global temperature rises.
- Current ocean temperatures are nearing the threshold for El Niño conditions, with a 96% chance it will persist through winter; the odds of a Super El Niño have increased from 25% to about 33%.
- A Super El Niño could rival or exceed the strength of past events like 2015-2016, potentially making 2026 or 2027 the warmest years on record, though exact impacts vary and are not guaranteed to follow historical patterns.
- Expected weather effects include fewer Atlantic hurricanes but increased storms in the central and eastern Pacific, warmer winters in northern US and Canada, and wetter, cooler conditions in the southern US due to jet stream shifts.