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Fed Chair Warsh expected to withhold 'dot' from central bank's interest rate outlook

CNBC • June 16, 2026 • business

Key Points:

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to possibly skip submitting his interest rate forecast ("dot") in the upcoming FOMC meeting, breaking a 14-year tradition of releasing the "dot plot" that signals rate expectations.
Warsh criticizes the dot plot and forward guidance for limiting the Fed's flexibility and contributing to communication errors, notably the mistaken "transitory" inflation call in 2021-22.
The dot plot is part of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which markets rely on heavily, so Warsh's absence could unsettle investors and raise concerns about transparency.
Some economists warn that not participating in the SEP could be perceived as hiding a hawkish shift or complacency on inflation, potentially damaging the Fed's credibility.
The upcoming meeting will test Warsh's new communications approach, with observers also watching for changes in post-meeting statements and his stance on holding news conferences.

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