First tropical storm of 2026 may form in the Gulf this week and bring heavy rainfall to Houston
Key Points:
- The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance over northeastern Mexico with a 50% chance of developing into a named tropical storm, potentially becoming Arthur, the first storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
- The system is expected to move over the northwestern Gulf by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with a narrow window for tropical storm development before moving quickly toward Louisiana.
- Southeast Texas faces a significant flooding threat due to prolonged heavy rainfall from multiple rounds of tropical moisture and a stalled front, with a Flood Watch in effect through Thursday morning.
- Rainfall rates could reach 2 to 4 inches per hour, causing flash flooding and overwhelming drainage systems, with most areas expecting 3 to 7 inches of rain and localized amounts possibly exceeding 10 inches.
- Residents are advised to stay alert, monitor forecasts closely, and avoid driving through flooded roads to ensure safety.