Flying soon? What the jet fuel crisis means for travellers and airlines

Key Points:

• Europe faces a potential jet fuel shortage within six weeks due to the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, risking flight cancellations and higher airfares during the peak summer travel season, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
• Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since the conflict began, with Europe relying on the Strait of Hormuz for about 40% of its jet fuel imports; some countries now have less than 20 days of fuel supply, raising concerns about possible physical shortages and cancellations.
• Airlines have responded by raising fees, embedding fuel surcharges into ticket prices, and cutting flights, with some carriers like SAS already canceling thousands of flights due to surging fuel costs.
• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a 64% surge in crude oil prices, severely impacting jet fuel costs and leading to expected airfare increases of 5% to 10%, though weak demand may limit the full pass-through to consumers.
• Airlines and industry experts warn travelers to expect not only higher prices but also increased schedule volatility, reduced route flexibility, and possible flight cancellations if the supply disruption continues into the summer season.