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Forecaster Shifts 9 Senate Races as Nate Silver Touts Democratic Polling
Newsweek • • general
Key Points:
- Inside Elections shifted nine Senate races toward Democrats on Thursday, including key states like Georgia, Ohio, and Texas, citing very strong recent polling for the party ahead of the midterm elections.
- Notable race changes include Georgia moving from lean to likely Democrat, Ohio and Texas shifting from toss-ups to tilt Democrat, and Iowa and Kansas moving from tilt Republican to toss-ups amid tightening polls.
- Republicans are aggressively campaigning to retain Senate control, with high-profile figures such as Vice President JD Vance and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. actively supporting GOP candidates in competitive races.
- Election forecaster Nate Silver and prediction markets indicate a significant probability—around 77.7%—that Democrats will regain the Senate majority, though some races remain close enough to flip with typical polling errors.
- The Cook Political Report largely aligns with Inside Elections but rates some races slightly differently, maintaining Georgia as likely Democratic and several others as toss-ups or leaning Republican.
