Forecasters predict strengthening El Nino to reach historic levels

Key Points:

• The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that the 2024 El Nino has an 81% chance of becoming "very strong," ranking among the most intense since 1950, with impacts expected mainly in fall and winter.
• This El Nino has rapidly intensified from weak to moderate levels and is driven by record-high Pacific Ocean temperatures, amplified by human-caused climate change, making it unusually strong compared to past events.
• The strong El Nino is predicted to increase rainfall in the southern U.S., warm northern U.S. and Canada winters, reduce Atlantic hurricane activity, and cause drier conditions in Indonesia and wetter conditions in the eastern Pacific.
• El Nino acts as a global "thermostat" by releasing stored ocean heat into the atmosphere, which may contribute to breaking global temperature records, with 2027 forecasted to surpass 2024's high due to accumulated heat.
• Experts warn that this El Nino could lead to significant climate impacts worldwide, including increased droughts, downpours, heat waves, and economic costs similar to or exceeding those of the 1997-1998 event.