Forget SpaceX's Upcoming Q2 Results. History Says You Should Wait at Least This Long Before Buying SpaceX Stock.

Key Points:

• SpaceX stock has dropped 31% since its IPO just over a month ago and is down 51% from its all-time high, causing some investors to hesitate before buying shares ahead of the company’s Q2 earnings release on August 4.
• Historical data shows that companies with large IPOs, like SpaceX, often underperform the market in their first few years, with average gains of only about 3.5% in the first year and potential underperformance of 4% over three years.
• SpaceX is making progress in its rocket business, including a successful Starship test and a $1.6 billion contract with the U.S. Space Force, but its heavy capital expenditures—especially on AI—totaled $20.7 billion last year and continue to rise, which has weighed on its stock price.
• Given SpaceX’s current valuation with a price-to-sales ratio of 76, far above the tech sector average of 9, and the historical trend of IPO underperformance, investors may be better off waiting until mid-2027 or later before considering buying shares.