Forget Tariffs! This Is the Single Greatest Threat to the Trump Bull Market, and It's Expected to Become a Reality on May 15.

Key Points:

• Under President Trump, major stock indexes have significantly outperformed historical averages, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite gaining 57%, 70%, and 142% respectively during his first term, and continuing positive returns in his second term as of April 2026.
• Trump's tariff policies, particularly those targeting China, have negatively impacted U.S. businesses by raising production costs, reducing employment, productivity, sales, and profits, according to a 2024 New York Fed report.
• The upcoming end of Jerome Powell’s tenure as Federal Reserve chair on May 15 introduces uncertainty, as Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh is seen as hawkish and likely to favor higher interest rates, which could challenge the current stock market rally.
• Rising inflation rates since the Iran war and Warsh’s criticism of the Fed’s large balance sheet suggest potential tightening of monetary policy, including selling assets that could increase bond yields and borrowing costs, posing risks to the expensive stock market.
• Despite Trump’s preference for aggressive rate cuts to ease national debt servicing, the Federal Reserve under Warsh is expected to prioritize economic data over political pressures, potentially curbing the stimulus that has supported recent market gains.