Fox News Poll: Texas Senate race galloping toward a photo finish

Key Points:

• A Fox News poll shows the Texas U.S. Senate race is deadlocked at 49% each between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, marking a significant challenge in a state that hasn't voted blue in a statewide race for over 30 years.
• Paxton has gained ground among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women, and supporters of former Sen. John Cornyn, while Talarico maintains strong leads with Black voters, urban residents, younger voters, and college-educated women.
• Hispanic voters have swung back toward Democrats, favoring Talarico by 30 points and Democratic control of the Senate by 29 points, despite previously showing slight support for Trump in 2024.
• Democratic voters show higher enthusiasm for the election, with 69% extremely interested compared to 61% of Republicans, and nearly 30% of non-MAGA Republicans crossing party lines to support Talarico.
• In the Texas governor’s race, Republican Greg Abbott holds a steady 5-point lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, supported by a positive job approval rating and stronger party loyalty than in the Senate race.