Goldman Boosts Oil Price Forecast by $8 for Brent and $7 for WTI
Key Points:
- Goldman Sachs analysts project Brent crude to average $85 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average $79 per barrel in 2024, revising previous estimates upward due to supply disruptions.
- The supply loss from the Middle East crisis is expected to peak at 17 million barrels per day, primarily due to disruptions in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.
- At the time of reporting, Brent crude was trading at $112.69 per barrel and WTI at $99.60, with prices rising amid escalating tensions after President Trump's ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait or face military strikes.
- Goldman Sachs anticipates the Strait of Hormuz disruption will last six weeks, followed by a gradual recovery in shipments over a month, though some experts warn the disruption could extend for months.
- The analysts warn that this supply shock highlights the structural risks of heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil production and vulnerable energy infrastructure, potentially influencing long-term market and policy responses.