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Goldman Sachs: Diesel Crunch Is Now the Biggest Threat in Oil Markets
oilprice.com • • business
Key Points:
- Goldman Sachs reports the biggest oil supply squeeze is in diesel markets, with global refining activity at its lowest for this time of year since 2020 due to war-induced refinery outages in the Middle East and Russia.
- Global refining throughput in July has dropped by up to 6.5 million barrels per day compared to July 2025, largely driven by lower Chinese refining rates and outages, causing a 35% decline in global diesel exports.
- Diesel inventories are below seasonal averages, tightening middle distillate markets and risking further supply constraints if disruptions continue.
- Despite crude oil price volatility and prices reaching $100 per barrel, refining margins remain at record highs due to a persistent shortage of refined petroleum products like diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel.
- The International Energy Agency highlights that refinery activity and product supplies have not kept pace with crude deliveries, resulting in significantly tighter markets for refined oil products compared to crude oil.
