Has Abiy Ahmed defeated the TPLF?

Key Points:

• Despite the Ethiopian national army's control over Mekelle after a brief conflict, life in Tigray remains difficult, with economic hardship and uncertainty about the future prevalent among residents.
• The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) claims their withdrawal from key towns was a strategic retreat, preparing for a counteroffensive, while government officials assert the war is effectively over and focus on stabilizing the region.
• Continued fighting and military activity have been reported in parts of Tigray, with heavy artillery and drone strikes near the Eritrean border, indicating ongoing unrest despite claims of victory.
• Analysts are divided on the conflict's trajectory: some foresee a prolonged war due to the TPLF's history and potential alliances, while others believe the TPLF's diminished capabilities and loss of public support limit its ability to sustain major military operations.
• Many Tigray residents express a strong desire for peace and stability, weary from years of conflict and human rights abuses, highlighting the urgent need for reconciliation and reconstruction.