Here's How Much Upside Is Left in SpaceX Stock at Its IPO Price, According to an Analyst
The Motley Fool • • general
Key Points:
- SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion at a $135 per share IPO, making it the largest IPO in history, with a valuation around $1.77 trillion and a total addressable market estimated at $28.5 trillion.
- Morningstar's bull case depends on SpaceX successfully scaling its fully reusable Starship rocket by 2028, which could drastically reduce launch costs and enable expansion into satellite services and orbital AI data centers.
- The orbital data center business, expected to launch in 2028, could generate $225 billion annually by 2035 if SpaceX captures 20% of AI infrastructure capacity, requiring thousands of launches per year.
- Morningstar values SpaceX at $154 per share in the bull case, implying a $2 trillion market cap, but investors must believe there is a 77% chance of this scenario to justify the $135 IPO price.
- Skepticism remains due to CEO Elon Musk’s history of overpromising, making the IPO potentially overvalued; investors might consider waiting for a better entry point despite SpaceX’s technological progress.