Here’s what one team of scientists thinks happened in Nepal’s deadly flood wave

Key Points:

• A catastrophic rock-ice avalanche on the Nepal-China border in August, which killed at least 1,300 people and left over 5,000 missing, was influenced by a complex combination of factors worsened by human-driven climate change, according to an international scientific analysis.
• The avalanche was preconditioned by a 2015 earthquake that weakened the mountain slope, alongside ongoing climate impacts such as rising temperatures, thawing permafrost, glacier thinning, and increased meltwater weakening the rock structure.
• Climate change has raised the zero-degree Celsius line in the Himalayas by over 320 feet per decade, contributing to permafrost thaw and destabilizing mountain slopes, while regional temperatures in July and August have increased by about 1.5°C due to global warming.
• The event was unprecedented in size, speed, and complexity, with no existing early warning systems capable of providing sufficient lead time, highlighting the limits of adaptation to such disasters.
• Scientists warn that without rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, similar large-scale disasters will become more frequent as climate change continues to intensify.