‘Hit them hard’: Does Trump have another ‘new’ Iran strategy, can it work?

Key Points:

• Following a month-long lull, renewed US-Iran hostilities occurred with US strikes on Larak Island and Iranian missile attacks on US bases in Jordan, prompting President Trump to vow a strong response.
• The Trump administration appears to be shifting to a “no war, no peace” strategy, involving periodic limited military strikes combined with intensified economic sanctions against Iran.
• The June ceasefire memorandum collapsed due to vague terms and mutual accusations of violations, leading to resumed conflict and stalled diplomatic efforts, with Iran demanding US compliance to return to ceasefire.
• Analysts warn that sporadic military actions risk escalating the conflict uncontrollably, while economic sanctions have yet to force Iran to capitulate, and the US faces domestic political pressure and possible munitions shortages.
• Israel and the US have diverging priorities: Israel remains focused on preventing Iranian nuclear development, while the US seeks an exit strategy to reduce economic and political costs ahead of upcoming elections.