How Do You Measure an A.I. Boom?
The New York Times • • technology
Key Points:
- Technological revolutions are often marked by exponential growth charts, such as Moore's Law, which predicted the doubling of microchip component density annually for over 50 years.
- During the early 2000s internet boom, Mary Meeker's presentations highlighted rapid growth in e-commerce and online advertising, signaling significant technological change despite dot-com hype.
- The current AI boom is characterized by abundant data on rapid advancements and widespread hype regarding AI capabilities and limitations.
- A chart created by METR, a small nonprofit in Berkeley, has become a focal point for AI researchers, investors, and industry observers, who analyze it intensively to gauge the trajectory of the AI boom.
- This "METR time-horizon" chart has sparked extensive debate about whether AI progress is accelerating, slowing, or simply confirming existing expectations.
