How Russian attacks, European protectionism and drought are trapping Ukraine’s vital grain

Key Points:

• Ukraine's grain exports are severely disrupted due to Russian missile attacks in the Black Sea, drought on the Danube, and political resistance from neighboring EU countries, threatening global food price stability.
• Maritime exports, which usually account for over 90% of Ukraine's grain trade, have plummeted to about one-third of normal levels, with no grain vessels entering Ukrainian ports since late July due to safety concerns after a deadly missile strike.
• Ukraine is seeking to increase overland grain shipments through EU neighbors like Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Moldova, but these routes are costlier and face logistical and political challenges, including past protests and export bans from Poland and others.
• Kyiv has requested €220 million from the European Commission to subsidize loans for farmers to hold grain until maritime shipping can resume, but longer-term solutions depend on restoring safe access to Black Sea ports.
• Poland maintains its embargo on Ukrainian grain imports to protect domestic farmers but is cooperating with Ukraine to ensure transit shipments pass through its territory to other countries, emphasizing that Ukrainian grain will not enter the Polish market.