How Trump has deceived himself on Iran
Key Points:
- President Trump has portrayed Iran as eager to negotiate a deal, repeatedly relaxing deadlines and downplaying provocations, suggesting a reluctance to return to war despite escalating hostilities.
- Trump’s approach of giving Tehran the benefit of the doubt appears to have prolonged the conflict and its economic repercussions, coinciding with the approach of the 2026 midterm elections.
- Despite tough rhetoric about retaliating against Iran, Trump has expressed doubts about American public support for renewed military action, indicating a preference to avoid ground troops.
- Trump’s inconsistent enforcement of ceasefire terms, such as the failure to insist on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, has given Iran leverage in negotiations and encouraged continued hostilities.
- The administration’s cautious stance may increase pressure ahead of the midterms, forcing difficult decisions between escalating the conflict or settling for a less favorable deal to end the crisis.