How Trump Screwed Himself

Key Points:

• Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, partly because accepting it would not appear as a victory for him, despite rising gas and oil prices hurting his political standing ahead of the midterms.
• Economist Paul Krugman argues Trump is losing the standoff with Iran because Iran can effectively block the strait, controlling a critical oil supply route, and the longer the blockade continues, the more global oil prices rise, potentially triggering a global recession.
• Krugman explains that Iran’s regime is willing to endure economic pain and suffering to maintain leverage, while the U.S. and global economy face severe consequences from reduced oil supply, making Iran the stronger party in the conflict.
• Trump’s refusal to acknowledge defeat is tied to his personality and political strategy, with Republicans unable or unwilling to challenge him despite the party’s bleak midterm outlook; the cult of personality around Trump further entrenches his dominance.
• The likely resolution may involve Iran maintaining control over the strait and its nuclear program while offering ambiguous terms that Trump can spin as a victory, reflecting a compromise that favors Iran substantively but satisfies Trump’s need for political triumph.