I asked ChatGPT if the stock market will crash in 2026. It said…
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I asked ChatGPT if the stock market will crash in 2026. It said…

The Twelfth Magpie business

Key Points:

  • ChatGPT estimates a 40%-50% chance of a market correction, 20%-30% chance of a deep bear market, and 10%-15% probability of a crash with indices falling over 35%, but these predictions should be viewed cautiously as AI struggles with future forecasting.
  • Despite geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns, recent strong corporate earnings and resilient consumer spending suggest the economy may be more robust than pessimistic headlines imply.
  • Games Workshop, a UK company known for Warhammer miniatures, exemplifies a high-growth, profitable business with recent half-year revenue up 17.3% and operating profit up 28.6%, supported by strong cash generation.
  • Risks to Games Workshop include US tariffs and rising petrochemical plastic costs linked to Middle East tensions, but the company remains a compelling investment example amid market uncertainties.
  • Overall, while caution is warranted, the underlying strength of many businesses means investors need not panic, and selective stocks like Games Workshop could still offer attractive opportunities.

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