Iran has a powerful new tool in the Strait of Hormuz that it can leverage long after the war

Key Points:

• The Trump administration claims success in its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with nine ships, including a Chinese-owned tanker, complying with orders to turn around; however, Iran asserts it controls the strait and will regulate ship transit, warning of threats to regional ports.
• Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz has become a strategic asset, providing significant revenue through transit fees estimated at up to $1.4 billion monthly, serving as a security guarantee by deterring military action through economic risk, and offering geopolitical leverage with energy-dependent countries.
• The US faces structural challenges in maintaining a blockade, as Iran's geographic control is easier to sustain, making prolonged US restrictions costly and potentially harmful to the global economy, likening the situation to America's "Suez moment."
• China, which imports over 80% of its oil from Iran, has condemned the US blockade and continues to comply with Iran's new transit rules, while preparing for potential disruptions by diversifying oil sources and maintaining reserves, though it may oppose the long-term toll system.
• China is expanding its influence in the Gulf region through growing trade, diplomatic mediation, and fostering regional security frameworks, potentially positioning itself as a key security guarantor and diminishing the traditional US role.