Iran thinks the US will let it keep the Strait of Hormuz

Key Points:

• Iran aims to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy route, leveraging military pressure to compel the U.S. to accept its dominance amid dwindling American military resources and war fatigue.
• Tehran is reportedly close to a deal with Oman to manage the strait, which would formalize Iranian control and challenge global norms of free navigation, though the agreement hinges on the U.S. lifting its blockade.
• Iran views control of the strait as a strategic lever to maintain regional power balance and influence nuclear negotiations, rejecting reopening it as an open waterway and threatening to attack unauthorized vessels.
• Despite economic hardships and domestic unrest exacerbated by U.S. sanctions and strikes, Iran’s leadership believes time and resilience favor their position, though internal dissent and economic instability pose risks to their long-term strategy.
• The ongoing conflict has defied initial U.S. expectations of a quick resolution, with Iran using the strait to demonstrate strength and legitimacy, yet the prolonged standoff increases the possibility of renewed aggression or internal upheaval.