Iran to meet with Pakistani mediator after Trump levels new sanctions

Key Points:

• Petroleum geologist Art Berman warns that the more critical energy issue lies in the millions of barrels of Persian Gulf oil production that remain shut in, which is more complex to resolve than reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Berman highlights that 8 million barrels per day of Gulf oil production are currently offline, contributing to a global production shortfall of about 10 million barrels per day.
• While tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz are closely watched, Berman emphasizes that the ultimate challenge is refilling those tankers with oil, which depends on restoring production.
• The International Energy Agency's August 2026 report aligns with Berman's estimates, noting Gulf oil production is still 8.3 million barrels per day below pre-war levels despite some recent increases.
• A White House official confirmed the Strait of Hormuz remains open with a U.S. naval blockade active, and oil prices have declined following a recent memorandum of understanding, but supply disruptions persist underground.