Iran Update, January 18, 2026

Institute for the Study of War • January 19, 2026 • world

Key Points:

Elements within the Iranian regime leaked plans suggesting efforts to moderate domestic and international behavior, likely aiming to deter U.S. attacks amid a brutal crackdown on protests; however, Supreme Leader Khamenei maintains hardline positions and has shown no genuine commitment to reforms.
The regime continues severe repression, with reports indicating thousands of protester deaths and mass arrests, including plans for executions under charges carrying the death penalty, as security forces intensify efforts to prevent further protests.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) signed a ceasefire with the Syrian government after losing significant territory in Raqqa and Deir ez Zor, agreeing to major concessions including handing over control of key areas and integrating forces into the Syrian state, signaling a weakened SDF.