Iran Update Special Report, May 13, 2026

Key Points:

• Iran is actively reconstituting its military capabilities during the ceasefire, regaining access to 90% of underground missile facilities and retaining about 70% of its mobile launchers and missile stockpile, aided by Russian drone component shipments.
• Despite tactical recovery, Iran’s strategic missile production capacity remains severely degraded due to extensive US-Israeli strikes on its defense industrial base, with long-term rebuilding hindered by sanctions and resource constraints.
• Iran is elevating the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, asserting control over maritime and subsea cable transit, potentially imposing fees and restrictions on foreign vessels and digital infrastructure to enhance deterrence and generate revenue.
• Regional states like Iraq and Pakistan appear to be complying with Iran’s transit rules in the strait, while Gulf states are expanding overland trade routes to reduce dependence on maritime shipping vulnerable to Iranian coercion.
• Hezbollah has demonstrated increased capability in coordinating complex swarm FPV drone attacks against Israeli military targets, prompting the IDF to expand airstrikes beyond southern Lebanon and intensify efforts to disrupt Hezbollah’s drone operations.