Iran war could last deep into 2027 as the Strait of Hormuz isn't that closed, allowing more oil out

Key Points:

• Iran claims control over the Strait of Hormuz and insists it is closed, but the U.S. disputes this, reporting that millions of barrels of oil continue to pass through the waterway daily via a military-established corridor along Oman’s coast.
• U.S. military actions, including recent bombings that degraded Iran's surveillance systems, have allowed tankers to navigate the strait more easily, enabling significant oil exports despite tensions.
• Analysts note that while the strait is not fully closed, ongoing oil exports delay a global supply crisis and may prolong the conflict, as neither side feels pressured to escalate or negotiate.
• The current situation is described as a "managed disruption," with intermittent military flare-ups and economic pressure, but potential for escalation remains, especially if oil prices spike above critical thresholds before the U.S. midterm elections.
• Iran perceives U.S. economic pressure as a sign of weakness, emboldening its leadership to maintain offensive actions, while the U.S. balances blockade efforts with reluctance to engage in full-scale military conflict.