Iran’s former diplomats warn of prolonged regional war

Key Points:

• US President Trump confirmed ongoing substantial diplomatic talks with Iran, citing recent gestures such as the release of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz as evidence of credible interlocutors within Iran’s leadership.
• Despite diplomatic efforts, military tensions persist, with US and Israeli strikes on Iran continuing and additional US troops being deployed to the Middle East; Trump did not rule out further escalation, including potential control over Iranian oil resources.
• Iran suspended natural gas exports to Turkey due to damage at the South Pars gas field, revealing structural constraints in Iran’s energy sector that limit its export capacity and weaken its leverage over Turkey, which has diversified its gas supply sources.
• Iranian political and military figures view potential US military actions on Iranian territory as opportunities to inflict political damage on Washington, warning that such moves could escalate conflict and lead to broader regional war.
• Internal power struggles within Iran’s leadership have led to the IRGC consolidating control over key security institutions, including the appointment of Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, reflecting the IRGC’s expanding dominance amid uncertainty about Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s health and authority.