Iran’s nuclear program: Cornered and wounded, will Tehran now race for a bomb?

Key Points:

• Iran’s former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa banning nuclear weapons, maintaining a policy of strategic patience despite escalating US and Israeli hostility and uranium enrichment advances.
• Following Khamenei’s recent assassination, Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba’s stance on the nuclear fatwa remains unclear, fueling speculation about a potential reversal amid growing hardline pressure and IRGC consolidation.
• Iran now possesses over 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, enough for several nuclear weapons if the fatwa is reversed and the regime decides to build a crude nuclear device primarily for political deterrence.
• Experts warn that Iran’s potential nuclear armament could trigger regional proliferation, with Saudi Arabia likely to pursue its own nuclear weapons in response, raising concerns about broader Middle East nuclear escalation.
• Despite the possibility of nuclear development, Iran’s missile capabilities limit its deterrence reach to regional adversaries like Israel, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, rather than major powers such as the United States.