Is France Gonna Make It?

Key Points:

• France is experiencing widespread protests since September, initially about school staffing and funding, but now fueled by broader economic difficulties and generational unrest, reflecting a growing social malaise and dissatisfaction with the status quo.
• Youth unemployment remains high at 20.6%, significantly above rates in Germany, the US, and the UK, highlighting ongoing social inequality and contributing to the unrest, with participants from previous movements like the Yellow Vests joining the protests.
• The country faces a serious fiscal crisis marked by high debt-to-GDP ratios, rising borrowing costs, and significant education spending, including large pension payments, leading experts like Paul Krugman to warn of fiscal unsustainability.
• Political instability compounds the crisis, with a hung parliament following the 2024 election and President Macron’s impending departure leaving the political center without a clear successor, while the far-right National Rally leads polls for the 2027 presidential race.
• The protests have expanded beyond France, influencing similar movements in Spain, Portugal, and Italy, raising concerns that France’s current turmoil may represent a profound and lasting political and economic turning point rather than a temporary disturbance.