Israel, US have a plan ready for third Iran war, but Tehran's hidden weapons pose major challenges

Key Points:

• Israeli and US forces have prepared for a potential third war with Iran, focusing on establishing air supremacy to enable extensive drone usage despite Iran's ability to adapt its missile tactics and reopen damaged underground facilities quickly.
• The Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility is a major strategic concern, as it is deeply buried and potentially capable of secretly producing nuclear weapons; experts doubt that even the US's largest bunker-buster bombs can reliably destroy it.
• A recent think tank report highlights ventilation shafts and tunnel entrances at Pickaxe Mountain as potential weak points for targeted strikes, but the facility's large size means multiple sites would need to be hit to disrupt its operations effectively.
• Israel faces challenges in neutralizing Iran's dispersed underground ballistic missile sites, as past cave-in tactics were quickly reversed by Iranian crews, and Iran has shifted to firing smaller, more frequent missile barrages that disrupt Israeli defense planning.
• There is skepticism in Israel about the effectiveness of a short, limited military operation, with some officials advocating for a longer campaign or ground invasion to truly neutralize Iran's nuclear capabilities and missile threats, while concerns remain about potential Iranian retaliation and the political complexities of regime change.