Kalshi traders think U.S. oil prices are set to hit new 2026 highs
CNBC • • business
Key Points:
- Traders on Kalshi predict a more than 50% chance that Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices will reach nearly $127 per barrel in 2026, surpassing the current high of about $113 per barrel in April.
- There is a 63% probability among traders that WTI prices will exceed $120 per barrel, reflecting optimism despite recent volatility following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement.
- WTI prices remain above $100 per barrel and have recovered from lows of $82.59 in mid-April, while Brent crude hit a new post-war high, though prices retreated after Iran submitted a revised peace proposal that the U.S. found unsatisfactory.
- The uncertainty over reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the continuation of the U.S. naval blockade has contributed to the partial rebound in oil prices, even as traders have lowered the likelihood of prices exceeding $150 per barrel from over 50% in early April to 26% currently.
- CNBC and Kalshi maintain a commercial relationship, with CNBC holding a minority investment in Kalshi, the platform providing these market predictions.
