Kazakhstan's future after the elections: Russia, EU or China

Key Points:

• Kazakhstan will hold parliamentary elections on August 23, transitioning from a two-chamber to a single-chamber system with 145 members elected via party lists, but genuine opposition parties are unlikely to win.
• Experts believe the elections aim to consolidate President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's power, weakening the influence of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, with constitutional changes allowing Tokayev to seek another seven-year term in 2029.
• The new electoral system excludes independent candidates and limits political competition, raising concerns about the narrow scope for genuine political choice and parliamentary autonomy.
• European Union response is expected to be muted due to pragmatic interests in Central Asia's trade routes and resources, despite the ongoing democratic backslide in Kazakhstan and the wider region.
• Kazakhstan maintains a neutral stance in the Russia-Europe conflict, seeks to diversify foreign relations beyond Russia and China, and views Europe as a potential partner for economic investment and resource markets.