Massive polling misses in Wisconsin, Michigan primaries

Key Points:

• Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary saw a major polling miss as progressive Francesca Hong, predicted to win by around 20 points, narrowly lost to moderate David Crowley by less than 1 point.
• Similar polling errors occurred in other recent primaries, including Minnesota's Senate race where Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won by a large margin despite polls showing a tight race, and Michigan’s Senate primary where Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow victory contrasted with double-digit leads in polls.
• Factors contributing to polling inaccuracies include Wisconsin’s open primaries, voter response bias among white progressives, late-campaign shifts, and national perceptions of candidate electability.
• Prediction markets also failed to accurately forecast outcomes in Wisconsin and Michigan, with platforms heavily favoring progressive candidates who ultimately won narrowly or lost, though some experts defend the markets’ probabilistic nature.
• These discrepancies highlight challenges for Democrats amid a progressive surge, suggesting that while establishment influence may be waning, it still holds significant power within the party.