McKinsey research shows AI creating more jobs than automation displaces - but 11 million American workers will need help this decade

Key Points:

• The U.S. economy is projected to have more jobs by 2035, but significant occupational shifts will require about 11 million workers to retrain or earn new credentials, with an average of 770,000 workers annually crossing occupational lines—3.6 times the historical rate.
• Automation threatens jobs like administrative assistants, who could see 80% of their work automated, but they have potential pathways to higher-paying roles such as project managers, provided they invest in education and certification, which often require a bachelor's degree and professional credentials.
• Many job transitions are challenging due to skill gaps and credential requirements; for example, dishwashers moving into healthcare support roles face both training and low wage growth, while some production jobs offer better pay but demand specific technical skills without formal credential barriers.
• Credentials are required for 85% of growing jobs, with nearly half reflecting employer preferences rather than legal mandates, highlighting opportunities to reform hiring conventions and reduce barriers through alternative assessments and apprenticeships.
• Employers, states, and educational institutions play crucial roles in facilitating retraining by streamlining credentialing, offering modular training, and providing financial incentives, as workers increasingly need new skills like AI fluency and adaptability to succeed in the evolving labor market.