New report shows the economic toll of ICE raids

Key Points:

• A University of Illinois Chicago study found that immigration crackdowns starting in early 2025 caused a $1.26 billion loss for Chicago's local businesses due to reduced consumer mobility between immigrant and non-immigrant neighborhoods.
• The study used anonymous cellphone GPS data and revealed a 9% drop in retail and a 10% drop in restaurant visits in Cook County, with these declines persisting for about a year without recovery.
• The economic impact extended beyond immigrant communities, with Illinois losing an estimated $107 million in tax revenue, highlighting the integrated nature of immigrant and non-immigrant economic activity.
• Despite White House claims that ICE arrests primarily target criminals, agency data show that about 70% of detainees currently have no criminal convictions, raising questions about the enforcement strategy’s broader social and economic effects.
• This research aligns with other studies, including one from the Brookings Institution, indicating that aggressive immigration enforcement leads to significant declines in consumer spending and economic disruption in affected areas.