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New Texas Senate poll shows where the race stands before early voting
USA Today • • nation
Key Points:
- The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 47%, a margin within the poll’s 3.3-point error range, indicating a very close race for the Texas U.S. Senate seat.
- Both candidates maintain strong support within their parties, with 92% of Republicans backing Paxton and 98% of Democrats supporting Talarico, while Talarico holds a significant advantage among independent voters, who favor him 69% to 11%.
- Recent October polls consistently show a tightening contest, with Talarico holding a slight lead or being tied with Paxton in several surveys as early voting approaches on October 19.
- Talarico performs well among key demographic groups including Latinos, urban and suburban voters, and women, whereas Paxton leads in rural areas and among men.
- Despite strong partisan loyalty, Talarico enjoys higher favorability ratings among Democrats (92% favorable) compared to Paxton’s favorability among Republicans (69%), and President Trump has actively campaigned for Paxton in Texas.
