Next El Niño could be a monster. What would it mean for California?
Los Angeles Times • • nation
Key Points:
- The likelihood of a potentially powerful El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean has increased to an 82% chance of emergence in the coming months, with a 96% chance it will be active this winter, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.
- There is up to a 37% chance the El Niño will be "very strong," which historically has brought extreme rainfall and flooding to Southern California, as seen in the 1982-83 and 1997-98 events.
- While El Niño typically brings wetter conditions to Southern California, recent years have shown variability, with some strong El Niños not producing expected rainfall due to other factors like atmospheric rivers influencing precipitation patterns.
- The potential strong El Niño could combine with a persistent marine heat wave off the West Coast, prolonging warm ocean temperatures that may negatively impact marine ecosystems by reducing food availability and stressing marine life.
- Experts caution that while El Niño is a useful indicator for potential weather impacts globally, forecasts are still evolving, and the exact strength and effects on Southern California’s rainy season remain uncertain.