NFL Week 18 projected scores: Model predicts point spreads and totals for every game
The New York Times••general
Key Points:
- The final week of the NFL regular season is challenging to predict due to teams resting starters and varying motivations, leading to more discrepancies between projections and betting lines than usual.
- The NFL Projection Model uses play-by-play data to estimate expected points per game for offense and defense, adjusting for opponent strength and garbage time.
- These projections generate expected spreads and totals for each game, which are then compared against BetMGM betting odds.
- For the two key division-deciding games, the model predicts Tampa Bay to beat Carolina by 3 points and Baltimore to win by 3 points at Pittsburgh.
