AI Generated Image
Odds increase for development of Super El Niño by this fall, potential strongest ever
FOX Weather • • general
Key Points:
- NOAA forecasts an 81% chance that a very strong El Niño will develop by October, up from 63% in June, coinciding with the end of the Atlantic hurricane season peak.
- El Niño, a phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), involves warmer-than-average central Pacific Ocean waters and typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by strengthening the subtropical jet stream.
- The stronger subtropical jet stream during El Niño creates high-altitude winds that inhibit tropical storm formation in the Atlantic, while simultaneously fueling intense hurricanes and typhoons in the central and eastern Pacific.
- Colorado State University has lowered its Atlantic hurricane season forecast due to the increasing likelihood of a strong El Niño, which is already moderate and expected to intensify.
- NOAA also projects a 97% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through the following spring, indicating prolonged global weather impacts.
