Polymarket predicts win for Espaillat, Lander, Valdez and Lasher

Key Points:

• Polymarket prediction markets show varying chances for candidates in New York’s key congressional primaries, with socialist-backed candidates featuring prominently in several races.
• Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat has a 57% chance of winning re-election in the 13th District, slightly ahead of Mamdani-backed Darializa Avila Chevalier at 45%.
• Mamdani-backed Claire Valdez is favored with an 83% chance to win the Brooklyn-Queens 7th District primary, while Brad Lander, also backed by Mamdani, is heavily favored (99%) to win the 10th District against incumbent Dan Goldman.
• In the 12th District, Assemblyman Micah Lasher leads with a 59% chance to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler, with Alex Bores at 43% and Jack Schlossberg trailing at 1%.
• Other notable primaries include the Republican contest to replace Elise Stefanik in CD 21, featuring Trump-backed Anthony Constantino versus establishment-backed Robert Smullen, and the Democratic primary in CD 17, where Beth Davidson and Cait Conley vie to challenge Republican Rep. Mike Lawler.