Pragmatic choice: Israel’s war backfires as Gulf backs US-Iran deal

Key Points:

• Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, have welcomed the recent US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) aimed at ending the ongoing war, driven more by a desire for de-escalation than trust in Iran.
• Despite Iran’s direct attacks on Gulf cities, GCC countries are pursuing pragmatic diplomacy over military confrontation, focusing on addressing immediate threats like Iran’s use of drones and proxies rather than solely its nuclear program.
• Gulf states are playing a more central role in current US-Iran negotiations than in 2015, with Qatar acting as a co-mediator and GCC interests emphasized in the agreement, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz and regional economic arrangements.
• The Gulf’s approach to Iran is nuanced and evolving; while Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait supported the 2015 nuclear deal, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain were skeptical but later recalibrated their relations following Iran’s responses to US maximum pressure policies.
• The war has accelerated a pragmatic rapprochement in the region, with Gulf states balancing security concerns amid Israeli and Iranian actions, demonstrating patience and engaging Iran diplomatically despite direct attacks, signaling a significant regional realignment.