Prediction: SpaceX Will Get "Cut in Half Over the Next 6 Months," Here's Why

Key Points:

• SpaceX's IPO saw a significant initial surge, with shares opening at $150 and quickly rising to around $195, pushing Elon Musk's net worth above $1 trillion; however, Prof G Markets podcast hosts predict a sharp decline, with Ed Elson forecasting the stock could be cut in half within six months as hype fades.
• Scott Galloway argued the IPO pop was engineered using structural levers such as NASDAQ waiving index-inclusion rules, a reduced share float, and $3.75 billion in shares reserved for friends and family without lockups, creating a manufactured scarcity and suggesting the stock should be treated as a trade, not a long-term investment.
• Elson highlighted SpaceX's valuation concerns, noting its $2.6 trillion market cap values the company at 112 times last year's sales, far exceeding multiples at Meta and Google's IPOs despite slower revenue growth, raising questions about sustainability.
• Competitors like Rocket Lab, EchoStar, and AST SpaceMobile experienced stock price declines as investors reallocated capital to SpaceX; Rocket Lab remains up significantly year-over-year but trades at a high multiple, while EchoStar presents a deep-value case, and AST SpaceMobile faces high valuation risk due to weak revenue performance.
• The critical factor to monitor is the upcoming lockup expirations, particularly the $3.75 billion in unrestricted shares, which could flood the market and depress prices; this event will test whether SpaceX's valuation reset drags down the broader public space sector or if capital eventually rotates back into other space stocks.