Putin’s Ukraine Peace Plan: The Prewar Ultimatum, With Interest

Key Points:

• In December 2021, Russia issued draft security agreements demanding NATO halt expansion, exclude Ukraine permanently, and roll back military activities in Eastern Europe, which the West rejected, leading to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that recent peace talks have revisited these original demands, now with added conditions including recognition of Russian control over occupied Ukrainian territories and restrictions on Ukraine's military capabilities.
• Despite heavy Russian casualties and economic strain, Moscow continues to press for extensive security guarantees, including demands that Finland leave NATO and removal of NATO bases in the Baltics, which Finland has firmly rejected.
• Russia is exploring bilateral nonaggression pacts with individual NATO countries to weaken the alliance from within, aiming to divide member states rather than confront a united NATO directly.
• Western officials warn against succumbing to Russian attempts to dismantle NATO politically, emphasizing the importance of alliance unity and rejecting Moscow’s demands as a path to lasting peace in Europe.