Putin’s United Russia will win - but vote tally, turnout and level of coercion will tell the real story of Russia’s wartime elections

Key Points:

• Russia’s parliamentary elections scheduled for September 18-20, 2026, are expected to result in a victory for President Putin’s United Russia party despite public dissatisfaction stemming from the ongoing war in Ukraine, economic hardships, and fears of conscription.
• The Kremlin employs various coercive tactics, election management strategies, and repression of opposition to maintain control, including limiting genuine opposition parties and manipulating voting processes such as multi-day voting and online ballots to obscure fraud.
• The Central Election Commission initially allowed the anti-war opposition party Yabloko to compete but later reversed this decision, removing any anti-war representation from the ballot and sentencing its leaders to prison, demonstrating the Kremlin’s intolerance for dissent.
• Although United Russia’s popularity has declined to around 32%, and many Russians feel politically powerless, opposition groups plan to encourage protest voting through methods like the “Smart Vote” app, potentially leading to spoiled ballots and visible dissent.
• The Kremlin’s main concern is not losing the election but the possibility that protest voting and discussions around electoral choices could foster a broader sense of opposition among the public, forcing the government to temper expectations about voter turnout and support for United Russia.