Rescuing a Losing War
Futura Doctrina | Mick Ryan • • world
Key Points:
- Ukraine has enhanced its strike capabilities with long-range FP-5 cruise missiles, successfully targeting a Russian defense industrial plant, and damaged key bridges to Crimea, worsening Russia's strategic position in the war.
- The assessment confirms Russia is losing the war against Ukraine across military, cognitive, moral, industrial, and economic dimensions, with its only current advantage being the stance of the US president.
- Five potential "reversal conditions" could still enable Russia to avoid strategic defeat, including a US-brokered settlement favorable to Russia, a recovery in global oil prices, and shifts in international alliances or Western resolve.
- The most significant reversal risk in 2026 is the possibility of a US-brokered ceasefire under President Trump, which could freeze the conflict and allow Russia to consolidate gains and regroup militarily.
- While higher oil prices due to Middle East tensions have temporarily eased Russia's fiscal pressures, this relief is unstable and contingent on ongoing regional conflicts, making it a fragile factor in Russia's economic resilience.