Research firm calls Anthropic the ‘most ridiculous IPO of 2026’, says it may be worth $144bn

Key Points:

• Independent research firm New Constructs criticized Anthropic’s planned IPO valuation of $2 trillion as highly unrealistic, estimating the company’s equity value could be as low as $144 billion, 93% below the target.
• To justify a $2 trillion valuation, Anthropic would need extraordinary revenue growth—1,000% in 2026 and sustained double-digit margins for a decade—resulting in profits surpassing those of tech giants like NVIDIA and Apple by 2035.
• The report highlights the challenge of pricing power due to competition from open-source AI models and points out Anthropic’s high operational costs compared to competitors, questioning the viability of its business model.
• Despite recent Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion exceeding expectations, analysts say this alone does not justify the $2 trillion valuation, with some valuing the company at multiples far below that figure based on projected revenues and losses.
• Anthropic’s IPO filing includes extensive risk disclosures about AI’s potential catastrophic risks and self-preserving behaviors, raising unique investor concerns about the societal liabilities of advanced AI technologies.