Robert Kagan on why he believes U.S. faces likely defeat in Iran
PBS • • world
Key Points:
- Robert Kagan, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, argues that the U.S. is likely to face defeat in the conflict with Iran due to a lack of viable options to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran currently controls.
- Kagan believes that only a full-scale invasion to remove the Iranian regime could change the situation, but neither President Trump nor the American public seem willing to pursue such a military action.
- He asserts that Iran is not intimidated by U.S. military threats, as evidenced by their recent negotiation proposals demanding reparations, sanction relief, and control over the strait.
- The conflict is shifting regional power towards Iran and its allies, diminishing U.S. and Israeli influence, with broader implications for global alliances weakened under the Trump administration.
- Kagan warns that the U.S. loss of influence benefits China, Russia, and Iran, marking a significant strategic setback without any clear resolution in sight.