Russia again claims to have taken an eastern Ukrainian region. The real picture is very different
Key Points:
- Russia claimed for the third time that it fully occupies Ukraine’s Luhansk region, though analysts and Ukrainian officials dispute this, noting minimal frontline changes over the past six months.
- The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlighted that Russia exaggerates advances to create a false impression of rapid progress, aiming to pressure Ukraine and its allies into ceding territory.
- Ukrainian forces have made significant counterattacks elsewhere, notably in Zaporizhzhia and Kupyansk, with Ukrainian military leadership prioritizing strikes where Russian defenses are weakest.
- Ukrainian drone strikes have targeted Russian fuel and ammunition depots far from the front lines, contributing to heavy Russian personnel losses, which Ukrainian President Zelensky estimated at over 35,000 in March alone.
- Russian military commentators have expressed doubt about reversing recent setbacks, while ISW notes that Russian advances have slowed due to personnel losses and reliance on poorly trained infantry.